As per a report published in 2008, there is a 31 percent chance of a 6.7-magnitude or larger earthquake on the Hayward-Rodgers Creek Fault system over the next 30 years. However, according to Tom Brocher, a research geophysicist with the US Geological Survey (USGS), a deadly quake can strike any day now on San Francisco’s Hayward Fault.
Brocher explains that the five major earthquakes on this fault occurred about 140 years apart, and as it is already been 147 years since the last one in 1868, an earthquake can happen any time.
In 1868, the earthquake was estimated to have a 6.8-magnitude and resulted in 30 deaths and extensive damage to the Bay Area. Brocher fears that this time an earthquake will be much more drastic as the population is now 100 times bigger in the East Bay.
Recently, an earthquake of magnitude 4.1 on the Hayward Fault hit the San Francisco Bay Area, rattling residents but apparently not causing any harm. Brocher explains that the Hayward fault is capable of producing a major earthquake. The USGS is keeping an eye on the Hayward Fault, but there is no scientific basis for predicting the date of the next earthquake.