China and India have 40% of the world’s population, while the US has about 5%. So, it is incredible to see that US GDP has dwarfed the combined GDP of China and India for the past century. However, this is changing rapidly and soon, it appears, China and India will lead the world in economic output, changing the balance of power on the world stage.
The following image projects GDP growth to 2050, and shows the US being eclipsed by China in 2018 and India in 2046. With the huge difference in populations between the US and “Chindia” (China + India), the writing is on the wall and nothing can be done about it.
US,China_and_India_projected_GDP_growth_2009-2050_Pwc (Image Courtesy www.wikipedia.org)
It is likely that, with the huge number of engineers being educated in China and India, although historically the countries have not been as innovative as the West, there will come a time when sheer numbers are likely to produce game changing and disruptive technologies overseas.
The only strategy for the US to remain at the top of the leadership board or thereabouts by the end of the century is to make sure its population is well-educated, innovative and creative, something that it has led the world in for decades.
As India and China become wealthier, it is possible that as their economies expand and educational systems improve, talent from around the world will look at least equally toward opportunities in China and India as toward the United States.
China and India are likely to remain very crowded and the United States will always, perhaps, offer a better standard of living. However, talented people like to go where the action is, and much of the action is likely to be occurring outside the US.
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References and related content:
- Chindia: How China and India Are Revolutionizing Global Business: Peter Engardio: 9780071476577: Amazon.com: Books
- The Exponential Power of ‘Chindia’ – Businessweek
- 印度通 Chindia Guru – Promotion